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Currency Exchange Report – 3/11/15

The U.S. dollar (USD) is stronger again today as European yields continue to compress lower to all-time lows but the market’s interpretation is that the sky is not falling today as it did yesterday. For today’s price action, the weaker euro (EUR) is seen as a plus for European equities as many of them are higher by near 2.0%. Yesterday’s strong USD was seen as problematic for many asset classes and for future growth. European stocks for today are being led by automakers and other exporting industries and the continuing cheaper euro is providing positive news for many of the key exporting countries in the Eurozone over the medium term. German 10-year yields are down another 2 bps today to another record low of 0.22%. The EUR has fallen sharply in five of the past six days.

Here are the key news stories from overnight:

The Bank of Thailand surprised the market by cutting interest rates by 25 bps to 1.75% for the first time in a year. The market expected no change in policy.
Chinese economic data was weaker than expected across the board including retail sales, industrial production, and investment data. Chinese stocks still eked out a small gain and the Chinese yuan is near unchanged.
K. industrial production in January came in slightly weaker than expected at -0.1% against expectations of +0.2%.

Currencies

The USD is up again against almost all the major currencies and many of the emerging market currencies. Interest rate differentials continue to be one of many keys that continue to support the USD. The USD index is up for the fifth day out of six trading days and is entering a technically overbought condition. Looking at emerging market currencies, almost all Eastern European currencies are lower today following the EUR. Turkey is higher as their current account data for January came in better than expected.