Oil Markets Update 11 Oct 2015

Lower costs have brought about oil organizations to strongly cut spending

Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI)

Over the last 18 months, prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) have tumbled from a June 20, 2014 high of $107.26 to an August 24, 2015 low of $38.24. During this same period, prices for Brent crude (Brent) have ranged from a June 19, 2014 peak of $115.06 to an August 24, 2015 low of $42.69. The sharp drop in oil prices is largely attributable to increased supply rather than growing demand

Lower costs have brought about oil organizations to strongly cut spending – OPEC gauges worldwide oil ventures will be sliced by $130 billion this year – and the U.S. Vitality Information Administration (EIA) expects generation will be moderate level in 2016. Expanded proficiency and more noteworthy exertion with respect to oil organizations to penetrate wells in those parts of their oil handle that yield the best measure of raw petroleum will permit oil makers to build generation this year, despite the fact that spending is falling. Note that oil generation decreases after some time, as oil is a draining asset. Over the long haul, the measure of oil created from a given area drops. Lower spending today ought to at last make supply decrease. Less supply ought to result in higher prices.

In the price chart that follows, readers should note that Brent trades at a premium to WTI. This reversal from the historical trend (i.e., WTI used to trade at a premium to Brent) began in late 2010. This change is attributable to meaningful U.S. production growth as well as U.S. law, which generally prohibits U.S. producers from exporting crude outside the U.S. On the other hand, a finished product such as gasoline and jet fuel can be exported. This has benefited the operations of those companies that refine oil.

Oil Market update 11OCT15

On Friday 10/9/15, the House voted to lift the 40-year-old ban on oil exports. This ban was first instituted after the 1970s oil embargo that sent domestic gasoline prices skyrocketing. Many oil companies have been pressing the issue with Congress for more than a year. It is too soon to know whether this vote will lead to a law change, as President Obama has opposed oil exports. The passage may also be more contentious in the Senate.

Over the long haul, permitting export could have a positive effect. It would make oil showcases more worldwide. In addition, fuel prices depend on the price of Brent. The spread in the middle of Brent and WTI would hypothetically limit if WTI could be traded. This could bring about gas prices to fall. Actually, in September 2015, the EIA found that sending out oil could help lower gas prices.

The industry dynamics described above are important factors in DAJK GROUP’s decision to continue to hold investments in oil and gas companies even as prices have fallen.

Our focus is on what we perceive to be well-managed companies with strong balance sheets and efficiently run operations. These companies also pay generous dividends, which we believe to be safe as long as market fundamentals do not deteriorate markedly.

These dividends, in essence, allow investors to be paid to wait. This means their investments provide current income during a period when industry conditions are less than ideal. While such a posture can hamper short-term results, we believe it will serve investors well over the long term.


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